A Study on Travel Decisions of Potential Adventure Tourists Under Risk Contexts: Based on the Extended Theory of Planned Behavior

Risk is a crucial concern in the field of tourism safety research and is widely recognized as a constraining factor that influences tourists’ decision-making process. However, heterogeneity exists in tourists’ perceptions of risks, yet few studies have focused on understanding when and how perceived risks can enhance potential tourists’ travel intention. Drawing upon risk homeostasis theory and the theory of planned behavior, this study constructs theoretical models encompassing perceived risk, travel intention, desired risk, attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavior control. Moreover, empirical analysis was conducted via 716 valid questionnaires collected from potential adventure tourists. The findings reveal an inverted U-shaped curve effect of “initial increase followed by decrease” regarding the influence of perceived risk on the travel intention of potential adventure tourists, with the desired risk acting as a key moderating variable. Furthermore, perceived risk may influence travel intention by mediating through attitude. The conclusions drawn from this paper provide valuable theoretical support for product design, marketing strategies and safety management within the adventure tourism industry while contributing to its sustainable and healthy development.