Color-coded collateral and venous outflow patterns in estimating infarct progression and predicting functional independence for stroke patients in late time window

Abstract Objectives To investigate whether cerebral collateral and venous outflow (VO) patterns on colour-coded multi-phase computed tomography angiography (mCTA) can estimate ischaemic core growth rate (IGR) and predict 90-day functional independence for patients with late-presenting acute ischaemic stroke (AIS). Methods The retrospective analysis included 127 AIS patients with a late time window. All patients underwent baseline mCTA with colour-coded reconstruction and computed tomography perfusion. Both collateral score and VO score on colour-coded mCTA maps were analysed and recorded. The IGR was calculated as ischaemic core volume divided by the time from onset to imaging. A 90-day modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2 was defined as functional independence. Kendall’s Tau-b analysis was used for nonparametric correlation analysis. Propensity scores, logistic regressions, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to construct the prediction model. Results Moderate correlations were found between collateral delay and IGR (Tau-b = -0.554) and between VO and IGR (Tau-b = -0.501). High collateral score (odds ratio = 3.01) and adequate VO (odds ratio = 4.89) remained independent predictors for 90-day functional independence after adjustment. The joint predictive model, which integrated the VO score and clinical features, demonstrated an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.878. The AUCs of collateral score and VO score were 0.836 and 0.883 for outcome prediction after adjustment. Conclusions Cerebral collateral and VO patterns based on colour-coded mCTA can effectively predict infarct progression and 90-day clinical outcomes, even for AIS patients beyond the routine time window. Advances in knowledge Colour-coded mCTA is a readily understandable post-processing technique for the rapid assessment of collateral circulation and VO status in stroke imaging. A moderate correlation was observed between the characteristics of collateral delay/VO on colour-coded mCTA and IGR in patients with AIS. Both high-quality collateral circulation and “red superficial middle cerebral vein sign” can predict 90-day functional independence even for patients beyond the routine time window.