Modeling choice determinants for bicycle-bus integration in developing countries: Case study in Fortaleza, Brazil

In the context of first/last mile, the bicycle-transit intermodality could lessen accessibility problems of stations and stops, reducing the need for feeder services. Although extensively addressed in developed countries, bicycle-transit is less studied in Global South metropolises, where distinct usage patterns are observed. Thus, this research aimed to model the choice behavior of the low-income population for bicycle-transit integration in Fortaleza - Brazil, a large Latin American city with a deployed bike-sharing system focused mainly on bike-bus integration. A Stated Preference (SP) survey was conducted addressing socioeconomic and trip characteristics, as well as policy variables such as bicycle parking and cycleways/lanes. SP data allowed the estimation of nested and mixed logit models representing choice behavior, and sample segmentation was used to identify heterogeneity among different groups of individuals. The results show that investing in bicycle infrastructure could stimulate bike-bus integration in Fortaleza; however, their relative importance depends on the analyzed individual strata. Findings also indicate the influence of public and road safety issues, as well as gender, income, and trip characteristics such as purpose and access distance.