Risk assessment model for predicting ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients who received primary percutaneous coronary intervention

Abstract Ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) is a kind of malignant arrhythmia in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who received primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). However, there are no risk assessment tools to anticipate the occurrence of VT/VF. This study is to build a risk assessment model to predict the possibility of VT/VF onset in STEMI patients undergoing PPCI. A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the patients who underwent PPCI from January 2006 to May 2015. Subjects were divided into VT/VF group and no VT/VF group based on whether VT/VF had occurred or not. In addition, the VT/VF group was further separated into early-onset group (from the time that symptoms began to before the end of PPCI) and late-onset group (after the end of PPCI) based on the timing of when VT/VF happened. Multivariate regression analysis was carried out to distinguish the independent risk factors of VT/VF and an additional statistical method was executed to build the risk assessment model. A total of 607 patients were enrolled in this study. Of these patients, 67 cases (11%) experienced VT/VF. In addition, 91% (61) of patients experienced VT/VF within 48 h from the time that the symptoms emerged. Independent risk factors include: age, diabetes mellitus, heart rate, ST-segment maximum elevation, ST-segment total elevation, serum potassium, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), culprit artery was right coronary artery, left main (LM) stenosis, Killip class > I class, and pre-procedure thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) flow zero grade. Risk score model and risk rank model have been established to evaluate the possibility of VT/VF. Class I: ≤ 4 points; Class II: > 4 points, ≤ 5.5 points; Class III: > 5.5 points, < 6.5 points; and Class IV ≥ 6.5 points. The higher the class, the higher the risk. The incidence of VT/VF in STEMI patients undergoing PPCI is 11% and it occurs more frequently from the time that symptoms begin to before the end of PPCI, which, in most cases, occurs within 48 h of the event. Our risk assessment model could predict the possible occurrence of VT/VF.