Quantitative measurements of esophageal varices using computed tomography for prediction of severe varices and the risk of bleeding: a preliminary study

We aimed to assess whether the quantitative parameters of esophageal varices (EV) based on computed tomography (CT) can noninvasively predict severe EV and the risk of esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB).A total of 136 endoscopically confirmed EV patients were included in this retrospective study and were divided into a non-conspicuous (mild-to-moderate EV, n = 30) and a conspicuous EV group (severe EV, n = 106), a bleeding (n = 89) and a non-bleeding group (n = 47). EV grade (EVG), EV diameter (EVD), cross-sectional surface area (CSA), EV volume (EVV), spleen volume (SV), splenic vein (SNV), portal vein (PV), diameter of left gastric vein (DLGV), and the opening type of LGV were measured independently using 3D-slicer. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were used to determine the independent factors and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance.The difference of EVG, EVD, CSA, EVV, DLGV, SNV between the conspicuous and non-conspicuous EV group were statistically significant (p < 0.05), area under the curves (AUCs) of them for predicting severe EV were 0.72, 0.772, 0.704, 0.768, 0.707, 0.65, with corresponding sensitivities of 70.3%, 63.5%, 50%, 74.3%, 52.7%, 48.6%, specificities of 71.4%, 85.7%, 100%, 71.4%, 81%, 81%, respectively. EVG, CSA (odds ratio 3.258, 95% CI 1.597-6.647; 1.029, 95% CI 1.008-1.050) were found to be independent predictive factors. However, there was no significant difference of the included indices between the bleeding and non-bleeding group (p > 0.05).CT can be used as a noninvasive method to predict the severity of EV, which may reduce the invasive screening of endoscopy.