Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey*

This paper provides a survey of aspects of the theory of regional trading agreements and of empirical evidence relating to estimates of country gains and losses. It begins with a survey of the predictions of trade theory relating to the gains and losses to member and to non‐member countries of liberalising goods trade preferentially by the formation of a free trade area or a customs union. Section III concerns the empirical evidence from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. In Section IV the authors examine the CGE modelling of the recently‐agreed free trade area between Australia and the USA as a case study. Other Sections discuss hub‐and‐spoke aspects of the evolving network of agreements and their impact on multilateral and unilateral modalities of trade liberalisation. Some general conclusions are drawn about the pattern of agreements and the need for reform of the World Trade Organization rules.