Roles of Climate Change and Increasing CO2 in Driving Changes of Net Primary Productivity in China Simulated Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

Net primary productivity (NPP) is the key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, and terrestrial NPP trends under increasing CO2 and climate change in the past and future are of great significance in the study of the global carbon budget. Here, the LPJ-DGVM was employed to simulate the magnitude and pattern of China’s terrestrial NPP using long-term series data to understand the response of terrestrial NPP to increasing CO2 concentration and climate change. The results showed that total NPP of China’s terrestrial ecosystem increased from 2.8 to 3.6 Pg C yr−1 over the period of 1961–2016, with an annual average of 3.1 Pg C yr−1. The average NPP showed a gradient decrease from the southeast to northwest. Southwest China and Northwest China, comprising mostly arid and semi-arid regions, exhibited the largest increase rate in total NPP among the six geographical regions of China. Additionally, large interannual variability around the NPP trends was presented, and NPP anomalies in China’s terrestrial ecosystem are strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Southwest China made the largest contribution to the interannual variability of national total NPP. The total NPP of China’s terrestrial ecosystem continuously increased with the concurrent increase in the CO2 concentration and climate change under different scenarios in the future. During the period from 2091 to 2100, the average total NPP under the A2 and RCP85 scenarios would reach 4.9 and 5.1 Pg C yr−1 respectively, higher than 4.2 and 3.9 Pg C yr−1 under the B1 and RCP45 scenarios. Forests, especially temperate forests, make the largest contribution to the future increase in NPP. The increase in CO2 concentration would play a dominant role in driving further NPP increase in China’s terrestrial ecosystems, and climate change may slightly attenuate the fertilization effect of CO2 on NPP.