Impact of Climate Change Adaptive Strategies on Maize Yield and Irrigation in Drought Areas

ABSTRACT Climate change is expected to reduce the yield of crops, including maize, especially in drought regions. Adjusting sowing dates and irrigation strategies are key methods for adapting to future climate change and maintaining maize production in drought areas. However, the extent to which the abovementioned strategies can mitigate the potential adverse impacts of climate change on maize yield and net irrigation requirements (NIR) in the arid regions of northwestern China is still unclear. This study used 12 global climate models (GCMs) to drive the AquaCrop model, evaluating maize production responses under two CMIP6 scenarios. The results indicate that the optimal sowing date should be 32.6 days earlier under SSP2‐4.5 and 37.9 days earlier under SSP5‐8.5 than under current practices. For irrigation, maintaining a higher total available water (TAW) threshold during the rapid development stage (> 65%) and at least 20% for other stages was beneficial. Compared with the baseline (1991–2020), adjusting the sowing date increased the maize yield by 1%–9% and extended the growth cycle (GC) by 3.5–22.9 days, whereas optimizing irrigation increased the yield by 2%–5% and reduced the NIR by 5%–25%. The results can provide useful references for food security in drought areas.