Navigating Uncertainty: The Use of Expert Deliberation in China’s Policymaking

China’s leaders have historically engaged experts in face-to-face deliberations to reduce uncertainty before making crucial decisions. However, the quality of deliberations varies: Some are tightly controlled and adversarial, whereas others are substantive and open. What explains this variation? When do China’s risk-averse leaders enable substantive deliberation? This paper argues that uncertainty motivates China’s leaders to introduce expert deliberation, while the policy subsystem type shapes its quality. To analyze how the policy subsystem affects deliberation quality, the paper proposes three ideal types—horizontal, hierarchical-competitive, and hierarchical-top-down. The analysis primarily draws on expert deliberations during China’s healthcare reform, supplemented by insights from three additional shadow cases.