Sex Specific Global Burden of Osteoporosis in 204 Countries and Territories, from 1990 to 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study

Osteoporosis is a highly prevalent disease with distinct sex pattern. We aimed to estimate the sex specific incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life (DALYs) years of osteoporosis between 1990 and 2019, with additional predictions from 2020 to 2034. We collected osteoporosis disease burden data from the Global Burden of Disease study covering the years 1990 through 2019 in 204 countries and territories. The data included information on the number of incident cases of osteoporosis, DALYs, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and age-standardized DALYs rates. Additionally, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis to forecast the burden of osteoporosis. The global number of incidence cases of osteoporosis, in 2019, reached 41.5 million cases. From 1990 to 2019, the low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region had the highest estimated annual percentage change in the world. Compared to males, female's ASIR and ASPR were all about 1.5 times higher than males for the same years in the same SDI regions. The projected global total number of incidence cases for osteoporosis between 2030 and 2034 is estimated to reach 263.2 million (154.4 million for females and 108.8 for males). Additionally, the burden in terms of DALYs is predicted to be 128.7 million (with 78.4 million for females and 50.3 million for males). The global burden of osteoporosis is still increasing, mainly observed in high SDI countries. Females bear a burden 1.5 times higher than males in terms of incidence and DALYs. Steps should be taken to reduce the osteoporosis burden, especially in high SDI countries.