Prediction model for severe vesicoureteral reflux in children with urinary tract infection and/or hydronephrosis

Abstract Background As voiding cystourethrography is invasive and exposes to radiation and urinary tract infection (UTI), identifying only high-grade reflux is important. We aimed to identify clinical, laboratory and imaging variables associated with high-grade primary reflux in children presenting with UTIs and/or urinary tract dilatation and develop a prediction model for severe reflux. Methods Data of children who underwent voiding cystourethrography due to UTI and/or urinary tract dilatation were retrospectively analyzed for demographic, clinical and imaging findings. Patients with severe (grades 4–5) reflux were compared with the rest for these parameters and a prediction model was developed for severe reflux. Results The study included 1044 patients (574 female). Severe reflux was present in 86 (8.2%) patients. Age < 2 years, male sex, non- E. coli uropathogens, UTD-P3 dilatation and multiple kidney scars on DMSA scintigraphy were associated with severe reflux. Using these variables a prediction model for severe reflux with a score ranging from 0–7 and accuracy rate of 93.4% was developed. A score ≥ 5 had sensitivity 44.2%, specificity 97.4%, PPV 60.3%, NPV 95.1% and OR 29.5 for severe reflux. Scores ≥ 5 and ≥ 4 catch 44% and 73% of severe reflux, while prevent invasive voiding cystourethrography in 94.0% and 83.6% of patients, respectively. Conclusion Age < 2 years, male sex, non- E. coli uropathogen growth, presence of UTD-P3 dilatation on ultrasonography and multiple scars on DMSA scintigraphy are risk factors for severe reflux. A scoring system based on these variables appears to be effective in predicting the presence of severe reflux and eliminating unnecessary voiding cystourethrography. Graphical abstract