Port congestion probability: Port performance evaluation using cargo port choice equilibrium

This paper proposes and studies the port congestion probability as a new port performance measure for seaports. We build on the recently introduced theory of cargo port choice equilibrium, where shippers and cargo port service providers at seaports are making their port choices while taking into account each other's decisions. A closed-form expression for the (worst-case) port congestion probability is derived under reasonable assumptions. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate how the port congestion probability can be managed when it gets unacceptably large.