Evolution of NT-proBNP During Prerandomization Screening in VICTORIA: Implications for Clinical Outcomes and Efficacy of Vericiguat

BACKGROUND: Selecting high-risk patients with heart failure with potentially modifiable cardiovascular events is a priority. Our objective was to evaluate NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) changes during a 30-day screening to establish (1) the frequency and direction of changes; (2) whether a relationship exists between changes in NT-proBNP and the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization; and (3) whether changes in NT-proBNP relate to vericiguat’s clinical benefit. METHODS: VICTORIA (A Study of Vericiguat in Participants With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) randomized 5050 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening heart failure event. We studied 3821 patients who had NT-proBNP measured during screening and at randomization. RESULTS: Sixteen hundred exhibited a >20% reduction, 1412 had ≤20% change, and 809 showed a >20% rise in NT-proBNP levels. As compared with the primary composite outcome of 28.4/100 patient-years (497 events; 31.1%) in patients with a >20% decline in NT-proBNP, those with >20% during screening had worse outcomes; 48.8/100 patient-years (359 events; 44.4%); adjusted hazard ratio, 1.61 (95% CI, 1.39–1.85). Those patients with a ≤20% change in NT-proBNP had intermediate outcomes; 39.2/100 patient-years (564 events; 39.9%); adjusted hazard ratio, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.17–1.51). No relationship existed between NT-proBNP changes during screening and vericiguat’s effect on cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial differences occurred in the rates of cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization, especially in patients with a >20% change in NT-proBNP levels during screening interval. Sequential NT-proBNP levels add important prognostic information meriting consideration in future heart failure trials. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT02861534.