Accuracy of the no-biopsy approach for the diagnosis of coeliac disease in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background & Aims Current international guidelines recommend duodenal biopsies to confirm the diagnosis of coeliac disease in adult patients. However, growing evidence suggests that IgA anti-tissue transglutaminase (tTg) antibody levels ≥10 times the upper limit of normal (ULN) can accurately predict coeliac disease, eliminating the need for biopsy. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the accuracy of the no-biopsy approach to confirm the diagnosis of coeliac disease in adults. Methods We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science from January 1998 to October 2023 for studies reporting the sensitivity and specificity of IgA-tTG ≥10×ULN against duodenal biopsies (Marsh grade ≥2) in adults with suspected coeliac disease. We used a bivariate random-effects model to calculate the summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were used to calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) of the no-biopsy approach across different pre-test probabilities of coeliac disease. The methodological quality of the included studies was evaluated using the QUADAS-2 tool. This study was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42023398812. Results A total of 18 studies comprising 12,103 participants from 15 countries were included. The pooled prevalence of biopsy-proven coeliac disease in the included studies was 62% (95% CI, 40% - 83%). The proportion of patients with IgA-tTG ≥10×ULN was 32% (95% CI, 24% - 40%). The summary sensitivity of IgA-tTG ≥10×ULN was 51% (95% CI, 42% - 60%), and the summary specificity was 100% (95% CI, 98% - 100%). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77 – 0.89). The PPV of the no-biopsy approach to identify patients with coeliac disease was 65%, 88%, 95%, and 99% if coeliac disease prevalence was 1%, 4%, 10% and 40%, respectively. Between-study heterogeneity was moderate (I2 =30.3%), and additional sensitivity analyses did not significantly alter our findings. Only one study had a low risk of bias across all domains. Conclusion The results of this meta-analysis suggest that selected adult patients with IgA-tTG ≥10×ULN and a moderate to high pre-test probability of coeliac disease could be diagnosed without undergoing invasive endoscopy and duodenal biopsy.