The impact of fiscal support for agricultural expenditure on rural residents' consumption: from a perspective of level and structure

Purpose As China’s industrial structure continues to upgrade and optimize, the consumption capacity of rural residents gradually improves and the role of consumption in economic growth is increasingly prominent. Against the background of weak external demand, the untapped potential of rural consumption has become a key force in expanding domestic demand. As one of the important means that the government has long relied on, fiscal support for agriculture has played a crucial role in activating the rural consumer market. This manuscript aims to explore the impact of local fiscal support for agricultural expenditure (FSAE) on rural consumption in China, as well as to examine the mediating role of the level of rural financial development. Design/methodology/approach In this manuscript, the authors use the provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020. The data of all variables mainly come from China Statistical Yearbook and China Rural Statistical Yearbook. According to the variable selection above, 651 sample data of 31 provinces and cities across China from 2000 to 2020 are organized. In terms of methodology, multiple fixed-effects panel model is applied to regression. Findings Firstly, FSAE varies significantly, while rural consumption slowly but steadily rises, with a relatively stable consumption structure. Secondly, FSAE has a significant positive effect on rural consumption. Thirdly, mediation testing indicates that mechanisms such as income, uncertainty and financial development have significant positive mediating effects on rural consumption. Thirdly, there is evident regional heterogeneity in FSAE’s impact on rural consumption. The Western regions, under government fiscal support, show a more significant effect on the elevation of rural consumption levels, while the role of FSAE in optimizing the consumption structure of rural residents in eastern and central regions is more pronounced. Originality/value Firstly, a systematic examination of local FSAE and rural consumption has been conducted, enriching relevant theories. Secondly, utilizing econometric empirical methods to research the relationship between local FSAE and rural consumption provides an exploratory extension to empirical studies on rural consumption in China. This offers empirical evidence for local fiscal support in agricultural development and the promotion of rural consumption.