Disentangling intolerance of uncertainty and threat appraisal in everyday situations

Intolerance of Uncertainty is a transdiagnostic risk and maintenance factor in a range of anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder. However, the mechanism of action in the development and maintenance of anxiety disorders is poorly understood, with the relationship between the constructs of uncertainty and threat appraisal remaining unclear. Most research to date has investigated IU in situations that are explicitly or implicitly threatening (i.e. where they have a negative outcome), which makes it difficult to establish whether it is the uncertainty or the prospect of a negative outcome (or threat) that people find aversive. If the construct of IU is about uncertainty (and not threat), it should also be operating in situations where there are no negative outcomes possible. Participants (N = 224) completed a battery of online measures in tasks designed to evaluate level of situational uncertainty and perception of threat level. These tasks required responses to scenarios which displayed or implied varying levels of estimated threat. Regression analyses indicated that IU was related to perceiving threat and uncertainty in negative situations and positive situations, with the greatest contribution from uncertainty within the situations, supporting the conceptualisation of IU as a response to uncertainty that is largely independent of threat although may contribute to perceptions of threat.