A Predictive Model of HIV Infection Among men who have sex with men (MSM): A Cross-Sectional Study in 6 Cities of China

Background Compared to the overall decrease in infection rates, the prevalence of HIV among key populations like men who have sex with men (MSM) remains high. Understanding the factors influencing HIV in these key populations is crucial. However, currently there are few large-scale studies that can comprehensively incorporate multiple potential influencing factors. Therefore, it is significant to build a predictive model for HIV infection among MSM based on demographic, behavioral, social and psychological characteristics. Methods A cross-sectional study of MSM was conducted in six major regions of China. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews. We screen variables through univariate and multivariate analyses, and construct a predictive model through stepwise regression. We evaluated the model through nomograms, ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Among 2,403 MSM, 199 were HIV positive, resulting in a prevalence rate of 8.3%. MSM aged 35–44, with lower education level, higher smoking frequency, having STDs, assuming the receptive role in same-sex intercourse, using drugs before sex and experiencing depression are more likely to be infected with HIV. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a p-value of 0.3834 for the model. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.783 (95% CI: 0.749–0.816). Conclusions HIV infection among the MSM population arises from a combination of demographic, behavioral, social and psychological characteristics. The development of the predictive model aids in formulating targeted and comprehensive intervention strategies. We need to strengthen our focus on HIV infection in MSM and take targeted measures based on the results of predictive model to curb the spread of HIV.