Effectiveness of the triglyceride-glucose index and triglyceride-glucose-related indices in predicting cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older adults: A prospective cohort study

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is a crucial component of public health. We aimed to determine the predictive value of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and TyG-related indices for new-onset CVD.This prospective study included 7,808 participants aged 40-69 years from the Ansung-Ansan cohort database. Our analysis was stratified by diabetes status. The hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident CVD was computed using multiple Cox proportional-hazards regression models. To evaluate the predictive performance of these indices for new-onset CVD, we calculated the Harrell's C-index (95% CI).In this study, a total of 6,890 participants did not have diabetes at baseline, while 918 participants had diabetes. In participants without diabetes, compared to the lowest tertile, fully adjusted HR and 95% CI for new-onset CVD in the highest tertile were as follows: TyG (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06-1.90), TyG-body mass index (BMI) (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.19-3.10), TyG-waist circumference (WC) (HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.61-3.49), and TyG-waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) (HR 2.20, 95% CI 1.47-3.28). However, no significant associations were observed between TyG, modified TyG indices, and new-onset CVD in participants with diabetes. Notably, the C-indice of TyG-WC and TyG-WHtR were significantly higher than those of TyG and TyG-BMI in participants without diabetes.TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, and TyG-WHtR were associated with an increased risk of new-onset CVD in participants without diabetes. Furthermore, TyG-WC and TyG-WHtR showed better predictive performances for new-onset CVD than TyG and TyG-BMI in participants without diabetes.