Global, Regional, and National Burden of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Trends From 1990 to 2021 and 20-Year Forecasts

BACKGROUND: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a critical condition that has far-reaching implications for public health systems globally due to its severe consequences and long-term disabilities. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of SAH trends from 1990 to 2021 and project future trends up to 2041, aiding in better understanding and management of its global burden. METHODS: We utilized data from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2021 database, using joinpoint regression, frontier, and decomposition analyses to assess changes in SAH burden. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort modeling was implemented to predict future trends. Our study included populations from 204 countries and territories. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, SAH incidence decreased by -1.03% for men and -1.16% for women, while mortality rates declined by -2.56% for men and -2.69% for women. Middle sociodemographic index locations and East Asia experienced substantial declines, particularly among women. However, countries like the Philippines and Turkmenistan showed increasing trends. Population aging and growth significantly contributed to these trends, while epidemiological changes led to reductions in SAH burden. The prediction model forecasts continued decreases in SAH mortality and disability-adjusted life years over the next 20 years, although incidence rates may slightly increase. CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of SAH has significantly diminished from 1990 to 2021, with considerable variations across regions, sexes, and countries. Ongoing and future research should prioritize high-risk populations and develop innovative interventions to further decrease SAH incidence and enhance outcomes.