Climate change and threatened species conservation in China: Impacts and adaptation strategies

Climate change-induced range shifts in species pose a profound challenge to biodiversity conservation. China has recently updated its list of key protected species, encompassing 980 wildlife species and 455 plant species. However, the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution patterns of these species remain unclear, inevitably hindering the formulation of effective and adaptive conservation strategies. This study combines species distribution models with gap analysis to examine the negative and positive impacts of climate change on 1023 key protected species. We assessed species extinction risks, identified conservation gaps and effectiveness, and proposed adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Our findings indicate that under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, 5, 28, and 83 species, respectively, would face high extinction risks with universal dispersal by the end of the 21st century. Plants generally exhibit higher habitat loss rates and extinction risks than animals. Among animal taxa, amphibians exhibit the highest extinction risks and habitat loss rates, with notably lower habitat gain and habitat remain rates compared to other groups. Geographically, species in Central China and Northeast China are at the highest risk of extinction, whereas the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau, Northwest China, and South China experience relatively lower risks. Although the current protected area network provides adequate coverage for the majority of target species, a notable conservation gap (>25%) persists for 115 species. Under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios with universal dispersal, the average species turnover rates within protected areas are 36.29%, 43.29%, and 51.10%, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. This study highlights the need for dynamic conservation and adaptation strategies in the context of climate change, offering essential insights for achieving the 30 × 30 conservation target and developing long-term effective adaptation strategies.