"Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Risk Cluster Analysis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI (H5N1) in Poultry: Advancing Outbreak Management through Customized Regional Strategies in Egypt"

Abstract Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI (H5N1) has been endemic in Egypt for almost two decades, profoundly impacting both the poultry industry and public health. Egypt stands as a prominent epicenter for HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Africa, marked by the highest number of positive human cases. Despite continuous governmental efforts, prior research underscores the inadequacy of strategies in controlling the virus spread. Our innovative epidemiological approach focuses on identifying spatiotemporal patterns and high-risk clusters of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks at the subdistrict level. This involves trial tracking of HPAI H5N1 endemicity dynamics, enabling tailored interventions at a regional level based on robust epidemiological investigations to address the persistent challenge of HPAI H5N1 in Egypt. The study aims to illuminate spatiotemporal outbreak dynamics, with specific attention on Menofia. Despite the region's early poultry impacts, initial outbreaks didn’t originate from Menofia in studied epidemic waves. Outbreak risk spatial distribution displayed an escalating pattern at the northern border, followed by risk reduction through the sixth epidemic wave. The predominant hot spot region was localized within rural districts, particularly villages, while urbanization coincided with lower outbreak density. Observed smoothed densities revealed epidemic propagation within urban centers, preceding its transition to new areas and establishing direct connections with neighboring cities. Primary cluster prognostication is plausible, occurring in regions previously hosting elevated relative risk clusters during preceding epidemic waves. Identification of enduring pinpoint clusters, persistent for extended durations, indicates close contact dynamics and localized viral circulation within populations. In conclusion, our study highlights the significance of Customized regional interventions based on the rigorous epidemiological framework. This approach is pivotal in the profound comprehension of endemicity dynamics, efficiently limits geographical infection spread, and contains outbreaks within delineated areas.