Price discovery in Indian stock index futures market: new evidence based on intraday data

This study revisits price discovery process in Indian stock index futures market for spot and futures of S&P CNX Nifty, by using high-frequency one-minute time-interval data for the period from January 2011 to August 2015 to gain fresh insights. Stationarity and cointegration tests reveal that spot and futures prices are I (1) and cointegrated. Three different econometric methodologies - component share method of Gonzalo and Granger (1995), information share method of Hasbrouck (1995), and modified information share of Lien and Shrestha (2009) have been employed to determine the extent of price discovery contribution by spot and futures markets. The results reveal that futures market is performing its price discovery function which satisfies the transaction cost hypothesis. Also, these results support the notion that futures market is more efficient vis-à-vis spot market in India. Price discovery is a main function of futures market and has implications for asset pricing, portfolio allocation, investment strategy formation, and market efficiency. This study might be helpful for regulators and policymakers to form market structure policies and guidelines for equity markets.