Predicting the supply–demand of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration

Ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand assessment is essential for understanding the inner relationships between ecosystems and humans and is useful when formulating future ecological policies. This study analyses the spatial and temporal variations in key ESs in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration to understand the relationship with human demand. First, the InVEST model is used to quantify the spatial and temporal changes in the key ESs from 2000 to 2019, and a supply–demand index is used to explore the supply–demand relationship at the county scale. Second, ES bundle is applied to analyse the relationships among ESs in different supply–demand balance areas. Finally, different ecological protection scenarios are proposed to simulate the supply–demand relationship in 2040. The results show that (1) the impacts of ecological factors on the ES supply are greater than socioeconomic factors, especially the precipitation and distance from the Yangtze River. (2) Regions of supply–demand imbalance are mainly concentrated in provincial centres and the surrounding cities, especially in the Wuhan city circle. (3) Each ES in regions of balanced supply and demand is well-balanced, and ESs in regions of supply-demand imbalance are dominated by one service. (4) Among the simulated scenarios, the climate regulation protection scenario in 2040 yields the optimal supply–demand result. This study can contribute to future management decision-making regarding the balance between the supply and demand of ecosystem services.