Secular trend and projection of overweight and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents aged 7–18 years from 1985 to 2019: Rural areas are becoming the focus of investment

Abstract Background: The urban–rural disparities in overweight and obesity among children and adolescents are narrowing, and there is a need for long-term and updated data to explain this inequality, understand the underlying mechanisms, and identify priority groups for interventions. Methods: We analyzed data from seven rounds of the Chinese National Survey on Students Constitution and Health (CNSSCH) conducted from 1985 to 2019, focusing on school-age children and adolescents aged 7–18 years. Joinpoint regression was used to identify inflection points (indicating a change in the trend) in the prevalence of overweight and obesity during the study period, stratified by urban/rural areas and sex. Annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to describe changes in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Polynomial regression models were used to predict the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in 2025 and 2030, considering urban/rural areas, sex, and age groups. Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity in urban boys and girls showed an inflection point of 2000, with AAPC values of 10.09% (95% CI: 7.33–12.92%, t = 7.414, P <0.001) and 8.67% (95% CI: 6.10–11.30%, t = 6.809, P <0.001), respectively. The APC for urban boys decreased from 18.31% (95% CI: 4.72–33.67%, t = 5.926, P = 0.027) to 4.01% (95% CI: 1.33–6.75%, t = 6.486, P = 0.023), while the APC for urban girls decreased from 13.88% (95% CI: 1.82–27.38%, t = 4.994, P = 0.038) to 4.72% (95% CI: 1.43–8.12%, t = 6.215, P = 0.025). However, no inflection points were observed in the best-fit models for rural boys and girls during the period 1985–2019. The prevalence of overweight and obesity for both urban and rural boys is expected to converge at 35.76% by approximately 2027. A similar pattern is observed for urban and rural girls, with a prevalence of overweight and obesity reaching 20.86% in 2025. Conclusions: The prevalence of overweight and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents has been steadily increasing from 1985 to 2019. A complete reversal in urban–rural prevalence is expected by 2027, with a higher prevalence of overweight and obesity in rural areas. Urgent action is needed to address health inequities and increase investments, particularly policies targeting rural children and adolescents.