Does the OFDI promotion effect of the Belt and Road “crowd in” or “crowd out” domestic investment?

Purpose This study aims to determine how and through what mechanisms the outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) promotion effect of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI-OFDI) affects domestic investment. It is motivated by the context that China is fostering a new development pattern, as well as by the impetus from the Belt and Road initiative for the new pattern. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on data of Chinese-listed companies, this study uses a difference-in-difference method to explore the effect of the BRI-OFDI on domestic investment and a mediation model to illustrate the mechanisms. Findings The BRI-OFDI has a significantly positive effect on domestic investment, meaning that the Belt and Road initiative's OFDI promotion effect crowds in domestic investment. The results are heterogeneous: the crowding-in effect mainly exists in non-state-owned and technology-intensive enterprises, while a crowding-out effect is seen in state-owned and labor-intensive enterprises. The easing of corporate financing constraints and the expansion of market demand are two important mechanisms. Originality/value This study uses the Belt and Road initiative as an exogenous shock to investigate the impact of the initiative-induced OFDI promotion effect on domestic investment. It addresses the potential endogeneity issue confronting the studies on the relationship between OFDI and domestic investment in the literature. The authors focus on the possible spillover effects of the Belt and Road initiative discussing the impact of the BRI-OFDI on domestic investment from the micro-firm perspective. It offers a new perspective to objectively assess the initiative's policy effect.