The predictive value of cumulative atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) for cardiovascular outcomes: a prospective community-based cohort study

Abstract Background Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) has been reported as a critical predictor on the risks and clinical outcomes of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and we aimed to explore the potential predictive value of cumulative AIP on major adverse cardiac events (MACE), stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and cardiovascular mortality. Methods A large-scale community-based prospective cohort was established from December 2011 to April 2012 and followed up in May to July 2014. The endpoint outcomes were obtained before December 31, 2021. AIP was calculated as the logarithmically transformed ratio of triglyceride (TG) to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) and cumulative AIP was the average value of AIP in 2012 and 2014. Results An overall of 3820 participants (36.1% male) with mean (SD) age of 59.1 (8.7) years, were enrolled. Within a median follow-up of 7.5 years, a total of 371 (9.7%) participants were documented with MACE, 293 (7.7%) participants developed stroke, 68 (1.8%) suffered from MI and 65 (1.7%) experienced cardiovascular mortality. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between cumulative AIP and the risk of MACE, stroke and MI. Regarding MACE, individuals with one higher unit of cumulative AIP were associated with 75% increment on the incidence of going through MACE in fully adjusted model, while categorizing participants into four groups, individuals in the highest cumulative AIP quartile were significantly associated with increased incidence of MACE (HR = 1.76, 95%CI: 1.27–2.44, p < 0.001 in fully adjusted model), stroke (HR = 1.69, 95%CI: 1.17–2.45, p = 0.005) and MI (HR = 2.82, 95%CI: 1.18–6.72, p = 0.019). But not a significant association was observed between cumulative AIP and cardiovascular mortality. In subgroup analysis, the association of cumulative AIP and the incidence of stroke was more pronounced in the elderly (HR: 0.89 vs. 2.41 for the age groups < 65 years and ≥ 65 years, p for interaction = 0.018). Conclusions A higher cumulative AIP was significantly associated with an increased risk of MACE, stroke and MI independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors in a community-based population, and the association of cumulative AIP and stroke was particularly pronounced in the elderly population.