A epidemiological trend of chronic kidney disease due to hypertension among adolescents and young adults: global burden and future 2035 projections

Background The study aimed to describe the epidemiological trend of chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to hypertension among adolescents and young adults during 1990–2021 worldwide. Additionally, the study seeks to provide comprehensive estimate of the associated risk factors for mortality and to project the burden of disease over the next decade. Methods We utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to assess the changing trends of the standardized incidence rate (ASIR), death (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) ASR by calculating the estimated average percentage change (EAPC). Meanwhile, to assesses proportional death of CKD due to hypertension attributable to associated risk factors. The Bayesian Age-Time-Quest Model (BAPC) to predict the ASIR, ASDR and DALY ASR for young people aged 15 to 39 by 2035. Results In 2021, there were 36,754 incident cases of CKD due to hypertension among adolescents and young adults worldwide. The corresponding ASIR of CKD due to hypertension was 0.91 per 100,000 population (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.67–1.18), and the EAPC was 0.99(95% Confidence interval (CI), 0.95–1.03) from 1990 to 2021. The DALYs case of CKD due to hypertension increased from 825,628.28(95%UI, 646,823.70–1,054,246.62) to 1,180,452.47(95%UI, 889,946.51–1,523,802.55), and the corresponding ASR increased from 37.67 per 100,000 population (95%UI, 29.51–48.10) to 39.68 per 100,000 population (95%UI, 29.92–51.22), the EAPC was −0.01(95% CI, −0.10 to 0.08). Among the 5 SDI regions, the middle SDI region had the highest ASIR of CKD due to hypertension in 2021. Regionally, High-income North America had the largest increase in ASDR (EAPC, 3.92; 95% CI, 3.58 to 4.26). Among 204 countries, Nicaragua had the highest national ASIR of CKD due to hypertension in 2021 (4.47 per 100,000 population; 95% UI, 2.48–7.31), Finland had the lowest ASDR (0.00 per 100,000 population; 95% UI, 0.00–0.00). Globally, dietary risks kidney dysfunction, high systolic blood pressure, were key risk factors for CKD due to hypertension-associated mortality in 2021. By 2035 years, ASDR and DALYs related to CKD due to hypertension will decline worldwide, ASIR are projected to continue rising among adolescents and young adults. Conclusion CKD resulting from hypertension globally poses a significant challenge for healthcare systems. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of CKD associated with hypertension will be crucial for developing more effective prevention and control strategies.