Collective effects of rising average temperatures and heat events on oviparous embryos

Survival of the immobile embryo in response to rising temperature is important to determine a species' vulnerability to climate change. However, the collective effects of 2 key thermal characteristics associated with climate change (i.e., rising average temperature and acute heat events) on embryonic survival remain largely unexplored. We used empirical measurements and niche modeling to investigate how chronic and acute heat stress independently and collectively influence the embryonic survival of lizards across latitudes. We collected and bred lizards from 5 latitudes and incubated their eggs across a range of temperatures to quantify population-specific responses to chronic and acute heat stress. Using an embryonic development model parameterized with measured embryonic heat tolerances, we further identified a collective impact of embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerances on embryonic survival. We also incorporated embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerance in hybrid species distribution models to determine species' range shifts under climate change. Embryos' tolerance of chronic heat (T-chronic) remained consistent across latitudes, whereas their tolerance of acute heat (T-acute) was higher at high latitudes than at low latitudes. Tolerance of acute heat exerted a more pronounced influence than tolerance of chronic heat. In species distribution models, climate change led to the most significant habitat loss for each population and species in its low-latitude distribution. Consequently, habitat for populations across all latitudes will shift toward high latitudes. Our study also highlights the importance of considering embryonic survival under chronic and acute heat stresses to predict species' vulnerability to climate change.