降水
极值理论
气候学
耦合模型比对项目
广义极值分布
环境科学
Cru公司
气候变化
气候模式
极端气候
重现期
半岛
大气科学
数学
气象学
地理
统计
地质学
海洋学
考古
大洪水
作者
P. Kishore,I. Velicogna,Tyler Sutterley,Yara Mohajerani,E. Ciracì,Jyothi Sompalli,Vijaya Bhaskara Rao Saranga
标识
DOI:10.5194/hess-2018-522
摘要
Abstract. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation may give some of the largest significant societal and ecological impacts. For changes in the magnitude of extreme temperature and precipitation over India, we used a statistical model of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV statistical distribution is a time-dependent distribution with different time scales of variability bounded by a precipitation, maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) temperature extremes and also assessed their possibility changes are evaluated and quantified over India is presented. The GEV-based method is applied on both precipitation and temperature extremes over India during the 20th and 21st centuries using multiple coupled climate models taking an interest in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observational datasets. The regional means of historical warm extreme temperatures are 34.89, 36.42, and 38.14 °C for three different (10, 20, and 50-year) periods, respectively; whereas the cold extreme mean temperatures are 7.75, 4.19, and −1.57 °C. It indicates that 20th century cold extreme temperatures have relatively larger variations than the warm extremes. As for the future, the CMIP5 models of warm extreme regional mean values increase from 0.33 to 0.75 °C in all return periods (10-, 20-, and 50-year periods), while in the case of cold extreme means values vary between 0.58 and 2.29 °C. In the future, cold extreme values have a larger increasing rate over the northwest, northeast, some parts of north-central, and Inter Peninsula regions. The CRU precipitation extremes are larger than the historical extreme precipitation in all three (10, 20, and 50-year) return-periods.
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