Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series

Abstract This book contains a up-to-date overview of nonlinear time series models and their application to modelling economic relationships. It considers nonlinear models in stationary and nonstationary frameworks, and both parametric and nonparametric models are discussed. The book contains examples of nonlinear models in economic theory and presents the most common nonlinear time series models. Importantly, it shows these models can be applied in practice. For this purpose, the building of various nonlinear models with its three stages of model building: specification, estimation, and evaluation, is discussed in detail and is illustrated by several examples involving both economic and non-economic data. Since estimation of nonlinear time series models is carried out using numerical algorithms, the book contains a chapter on estimating parametric nonlinear models and another on estimating nonparametric ones. Forecasting is a major reason for building time series models, linear or nonlinear. The book contains a discussion on forecasting with nonlinear models, both parametric and nonparametric, and considers numerical techniques necessary for computing multi-period forecasts from them. The main focus of the book is on models of the conditional mean, but models of the conditional variance, mainly those of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, receive attention as well. A separate chapter is devoted to state space models.