Attention, institutional friction, and punctuated equilibrium in China's budget: Changes in social security and employment expenditure

Abstract Based on the literature on punctuated equilibrium theory (PET), we conducted an empirical analysis on the changes in China's social security and employment budget expenditure at the subnational level from 2009 to 2020. We calculated the kurtosis value for 31 provinces to check whether they conform to PET. We used the number of policy documents and resource congestion as indicators of attention allocation and decision cost, respectively, to determine the impacts they have on budget changes. We then performed regression with a fixed effect model. The results show that the budgetary changes of only 20 provinces obey a leptokurtic distribution. Moreover, the allocation of attention by decision makers and institutional friction can explain this pattern of change. This article enriches the empirical study and extends its applicability to PET at the subnational level, especially in authoritarian regimes such as China, and provides some evidence for subsequent research on selecting indicators. Related Articles Kwon, Sung‐Wook, and Sylvia Gonzalez‐Gorman. 2019. “Influence of Local Political Institutions on Policy Punctuation in Three Policy Areas.” Politics & Policy 47(2): 300–25. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12295 . Modlin, Steve. 2008. “Defining Involvement of County Commissioners in the Budget Formulation Process.” Politics & Policy 36(6): 1044–65. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2008.00149.x . Moreno‐Enguix, María Del Rocío, and Laura Vanesa Lorente Bayona. 2017. “Factors Affecting Public Expenditure Efficiency in Developed Countries.” Politics & Policy 45(1): 105–43. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12194 .