Do grandparents really matter? The effect of regular grandparental childcare on the second-birth transition

Abstract In the last five decades, almost all European countries have experienced a decline in actual fertility, but not in desired fertility. The incompatibility of motherhood and paid work has been identified as one of the main drivers of women’s unrealized fertility desires. Regular grandparental childcare might reduce mothers’ work–family conflicts, increasing their chances of having a second birth. An extensive literature has estimated the role of grandparenting in adult children’s fertility. However, less attention has been devoted to the direct role of regular grandparental childcare, which is among the main resources in women’s reconciliation strategies. This article contributes to this debate by estimating the causal effect of regular grandparental childcare on women’s chances of having a second child. Using data from the first five waves of the Millennium Cohort Study, I implement an instrumental variable approach. I observe a strong and positive effect of regular grandparental childcare on women’s likelihood of having a second birth. This effect remains strong and positive net of women’s partnership status and income and educational levels. These results highlight the importance of the affordability and the availability of childcare for the decision to have a second child and the need for more supportive childcare policies.