Determinants of late metastases in renal cell carcinoma

Abstract Background The mechanisms underlying metastatic latency in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) remain poorly understood. Methods This study evaluated 2 large independent cohorts for differences in tumor biology between patients who developed metastases early (≤1 year after nephrectomy) and those with late onset (>3 years). Results In the discovery cohort (n = 161), late metastatic RCC was associated with clear cell histology (88.9% vs 78.7%), lower pathological stage (pT1-2; 40.3% vs 18.0%), and favorable histopathological features including low grade (40.0% vs 2.3%), less sarcomatoid (5.6% vs 21.8%), and reduced necrosis (37.7% vs 78.3%; all P < .02). Late metastatic RCC tumors exhibited increased angiogenesis (63.5% vs 19.4%) and reduced inflammation (78.8% vs 50.0%; all P < .02) profiles. Genomic driver analyses revealed comparable rates of PBRM1 and SETD2 loss in late and early metastatic RCC, while BAP1 loss was significantly less common in late metastatic RCC (7.5% vs 27.1%; P < .02). In multivariable models, BAP1/PBRM1/SETD2 status and tumor necrosis emerged as key discriminators of late metastatic RCCs. These findings were confirmed in the second cohort (n = 307). Late metastatic RCC was enriched for fatty acid oxidation and angiogenesis pathways, supporting a less aggressive phenotype. This was further evidenced by a lower engraftment rate in murine models (0% vs 36.5%; P < .001) and significantly longer overall survival from the time of metastasis (median survival doubled, P < .001). Interestingly, late metastatic RCC shared genomic and phenotypic features with RCC that metastasizes to the pancreas, suggesting a common underlying biology influencing both metastatic latency and pancreatic tropism. Conclusions Overall, these findings advocate for recognition of late metastatic RCC because of its distinct biology and improved prognosis.