Delineation of future urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by integrating socioeconomic development and ecosystem services conservation

• This study delineated the urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. • We integrated socioeconomic development and ecological protection. • The urban area is projected to increase by 62%–77%. • The losses of ecosystem services are projected to reduce by 9%–40%. • There is a trade-off effect of ES protection in the Xizang Autonomous Region. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China and the broader Asian region. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in this region with consideration of socioeconomic development and ecological protection is urgently needed, but there is a lack of such research. The objective of this study is to delineate the UGBs on the QXP during 2020–2100 to simultaneously meet the needs of socioeconomic development and ecosystem services (ESs) protection. To achieve this purpose, under a scenario matrix integrating shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and ESs protection, the urban expansion on the QXP during 2020–2100 was simulated by coupling the ESs assessment models and the zoned land use scenario dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Finally, we compared the spatial patterns of the UGBs and the conservation effectiveness of ESs under different scenarios. The extent of UGBs on the QXP is projected to reach 2,045.60–2,231.10 km 2 , which is 62.23%–76.95% greater than the urban land area (1,260.90 km 2 ) in 2020. Protecting the ESs can reduce the loss of the average natural habitat quality, food production, and carbon sequestration by 33.29%–34.27%, 8.61%–18.23%, and 36.56%–40.34%, respectively. Protecting food production and carbon sequestration in Qinghai Province are more effective, but in the Xizang Autonomous Region, protecting ESs has a considerable trade-off effect. The UGBs delineated in this study can offer a reference for future urban planning on the QXP.