Urinary volatile organic compounds in prostate cancer biopsy pathologic risk stratification using logistic regression and multivariate analysis models

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in American men after lung cancer. The current PCa diagnostic method, the serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test, is not specific, thus, alternatives are needed to avoid unnecessary biopsies and over-diagnosis of clinically insignificant PCa. To explore the application of metabolomics in such effort, urine samples were collected from 386 male adults aged 44-93 years, including 247 patients with biopsy-proven PCa and 139 with biopsy-proven negative results. The PCa-positive group was further subdivided into two groups: low-grade (ISUP Grade Group = 1; n = 139) and intermediate/high-grade (ISUP Grade Group ≥ 2; n = 108). Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in urine were extracted by stir bar sorptive extraction (SBSE) and analyzed using thermal desorption with gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS). We used machine learning tools to develop and evaluate models for PCa diagnosis and prognosis. In total, 22,538 VOCs were identified in the urine samples. With regularized logistic regression, our model for PCa diagnosis yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.99 and 0.88 for the training and testing sets respectively. Furthermore, the model for differentiating between low-grade and intermediate/high-grade PCa yielded an average AUC of 0.78 based on a repeated test-sample approach for cross-validation. These novel methods using urinary VOCs and logistic regression were developed to fill gaps in PCa screening and assessment of PCa grades prior to biopsy. Our study findings provide a promising alternative or adjunct to current PCa screening and diagnostic methods to better target patients for biopsy and mitigate the challenges associated with over-diagnosis and over-treatment of PCa.