Predictive Model for Erosion Rate of Concrete Under Wind Gravel Flow Based on K-Fold Cross-Validation Combined with Support Vector Machine

In the Gobi region, concrete structures frequently suffer erosion from wind gravel flow. This erosion notably impairs their longevity. Therefore, creating a predictive model for wind gravel flow-related concrete damage is crucial to proactively address and manage this problem. Traditional theoretical models often fail to predict the erosion rate of concrete (CER) structures accurately. This issue arises from oversimplified assumptions and the failure to account for environmental variations and complex nonlinear relationships between parameters. Consequently, a single traditional model is inadequate for predicting the CER under wind gravel flow conditions in this region. To address this, the study utilized a machine learning (ML) model for a more precise prediction and evaluation of CER. The support vector machine (SVM) model demonstrates superior predictive performance, evidenced by its R2 value nearing one and a notable reduction in RMSE 1.123 and 1.573 less than the long short-term memory network (LSTM) and BP neural network (BPNN) models, respectively. Ensuring that the training set comprises at least 80% of the total data volume is crucial for the SVM model’s prediction accuracy. Moreover, erosion time is identified as the most significant factor affecting the CER. An enhanced theoretical erosion model, derived from the Bitter and Oka framework and integrating concrete strength and erosion parameters, was formulated. It showed average relative errors of 22% and 31.6% for the Bitter and Oka models, respectively. The SVM model, however, recorded a minimal average relative error of just −0.5%, markedly surpassing these improved theoretical models in terms of prediction accuracy. Theoretical models often rely on simplifying assumptions, such as linear relationships and homogeneous material properties. In practice, however, factors like concrete materials, wind gravel flow, and climate change are nonlinear and non-homogeneous. This significantly limits the applicability of these models in real-world environments. Ultimately, the SVM algorithm is highly effective in developing a reliable prediction model for CER. This model is crucial for safeguarding concrete structures in wind gravel flow environments.