Transnational hubs and domestic hinterlands: Busan and the limits of port consolidation policies in Japan

This paper explores how integration into global container shipping networks influences domestic port hinterlands, focusing on the role of foreign transhipment hub ports. Using Japan as a case study, it combines a longitudinal analysis of inland distance friction (1985–2018) with cross-sectional spatial interaction models for 2018 based on CCFS and AIS data. Results confirm the persistent importance of inland distance in structuring port–hinterland flows, while showing that its effects vary with ports' maritime network positioning. Connectivity operates primarily through its interaction with inland distance, indicating that network integration reshapes rather than reduces spatial frictions. Feeder connectivity to Busan is associated with strong but spatially bounded hinterland capture, particularly for exports, whereas trunk connectivity shows weak and inconsistent effects. Import flows are more spatially concentrated, while export flows are more responsive to connectivity-distance interactions. These findings suggest that policies should prioritize feeder networks and inland logistics integration rather than focusing solely on trunk-line connectivity.