Cost-effectiveness analysis of polymyxin B versus colistin for treating patients with carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacterial infections

The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacterial (CRGNB) infection is continuously increasing, and polymyxin B and colistin are considered last-resort drugs. This study compared the cost-effectiveness of polymyxin B with that of colistin for the treatment of intensive care unit patients with CRGNB infection from the Chinese healthcare perspective. A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of polymyxin B compared with colistin over a period of 5 years using evidence from phase trials and other publicly available studies. The model was developed in Treeage Pro 2022 and comprises a decision tree depicting initial hospitalization and a Markov model with four states projecting long-term health and economic impacts following discharge. Uncertainty was tested with one-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), direct medical costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were estimated at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of $12,674 to $38,024 per QALY. According to the base analyses, the cost incurred by patients receiving colistin treatment was $12,244.77, leading to a gain of 1.35 QALYs. In contrast, patients treated with polymyxin B had a lower cost of $7,306.71 but yielded 1.07 QALYs. The ICRE of colistin was $18032.25/QALY. At a $12,674/QALY threshold, the results were sensitive to several variables, including the probability of cure with polymyxin B, the cost of drugs, the utility of discharge to home, the utility of discharge to long-term care, and the cost of nephrotoxicity with renal replacement therapy. After all model inputs varied across a wide range of reasonable values, only the probability of being cured with polymyxin B resulted in an ICER above the $38,024/QALY threshold. According to the probabilistic sensitivity analyses, colistin was the optimal strategy in 38.2% and 62.8% of the simulations, at $12,674/QALY and $38,024/QALY, respectively. Our study findings suggest that, when considering the Chinese healthcare perspective, colistin is likely to be more cost-effective than polymyxin B for patients with CRGNB infection, especially when the WTP threshold is set at one-time the per capita GDP. However, as the WTP threshold increases from one to three times the per capita GDP, the cost-effectiveness acceptability of colistin improves, increasing from 38.2 to 62.8%.