Probability Distribution Modelling of Nigeria’s Economic Growth Rate

The probability distribution that best describes the Nigeria economic growth rate from year 1960-2019 was investigated. The secondary data obtained from www.macrotrends.net on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in other to measure the Economic Growth Rate of Nigeria was used. Six theoretical probability distributions were fitted using Normal distribution, Weibull distribution, Pareto distribution, Cauchy distribution, Gamma distribution, lognormal distribution. The Weibull distribution fitted the data as confirmed by the Kolmogorov Smirnov goodness of fit test and the best fit distribution was selected using the Akaike Information Criteria, Bayes Information Criteria. Probability forecast was done using the best fit probability distribution. This shows that the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of economic growth rate in less than 5 years in Nigeria is 8% which is highly low. Also, the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of Economic Growth rate in less than 10 years in Nigeria is 14% which is also low. Lastly, the probability of obtaining an increase in the value of economic growth rate above 10 years in Nigeria is 85% which is high. Meaning that before we can have a meaningful increment in our economic growth in Nigeria is after ten years of this study