Projecting Pension Outcomes at Retirement - Towards an Industry Reporting Standard

We propose a method for projecting pension benefits, deriving from DC pension plans and other funded products, at retirement. Projections highlight how the current choice of asset allocation impacts on future potential retirement outcomes. The latter are compared with a money-back benchmark so as to clarify the trade-off between risk and return. After the initial projections, the pension plan revises its forecasts of retirement benefits on a yearly basis as a function of its own realized returns. Previous shorter-term projections are also compared to shorter-term ex-post performance. This simple method is a step towards an industry-reporting standard that responds to regulators’ quest for helping investors monitoring the risk of their future pension.