Analysis of Interactions and Driving Factors in Subsystems of Regional Water Resource Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

The sustainable utilization of water resources plays a crucial strategic role in regional economic development. The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a multifaceted system influenced by diverse factors, where the interplay among water resources, societal factors, economic conditions, and ecological elements collectively determines the overall WRCC. Combining relevant research results, this paper utilized an improved TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) and GRA (grey relational analysis)-based WRCC evaluation model, introduced the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to analyze the effects of interactions among subsystems, and applied the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model for the driving analysis of WRCC. Using Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as a case study, this paper discusses the internal dynamic relationships and driving mechanisms of the WRCC system. It also provides a new perspective for discussing WRCC in water-scarce areas and provides novel approaches for optimizing water resource management and enhancing ecological protection. The results indicate that the water resources subsystem is central to the WRCC in Ningxia, with significant interconnections among the four subsystems. However, significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity is evident across different regions. The water resources system contributes significantly, with ecological development having a positive impact on water resources. However, social and economic development has a restrictive impact on water resources.