Urban greening mitigates surface warming induced by urbanization in China

• Urbanization-induced warming averaged 3.78 °C, while vegetation greening produced an average cooling of 2.49 °C. • The cooling potential of urban vegetation greening is insufficient to offset the warming caused by urbanization. • Urbanization-induced warming is significantly amplified under high temperature and high urbanization conditions. • Urbanization-induced warming and vegetation cooling exhibit competitive and threshold effects. Urbanization intensifies regional warming and increases the risk of heat stress for urban residents. Urban vegetation regulates the local climate by altering the surface energy balance; however, the extent to which urban greening can mitigate the warming induced by urbanization remains unclear. This study quantifies and compares the warming effects of urbanization and the cooling effects of vegetation during summer across 310 cities in China, and further assesses the regulatory role of vegetation greening in mitigating the warming induced by urbanization. The results indicate that urbanization-induced summer warming averaged 3.78 °C between 2000 and 2020, while vegetation greening produced an average cooling effect of 2.49 °C over the same period, with both exhibiting clear competitive interactions and threshold effects in the urban thermal environment. Although vegetation greening effectively mitigates surface warming induced by urbanization, the warming effect is more pronounced and sensitive in regions with high temperatures and intensive urbanization, and the thermal mitigation effect of vegetation remains insufficient to fully offset the surface warming pressure caused by urbanization. The results reveal the long-term potential and spatiotemporal patterns of urban vegetation in mitigating the warming induced by urbanization, highlight the limitations of single greening measures in addressing urban heat issues, and provide scientific evidence for the development of more effective urban heat regulation and climate adaptation policies.