Changes in the spatial distribution of Bryophytes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under CMIP6 future projections

Bryophytes play important roles in high altitude–latitude ecosystem owing to their extensive geographical coverage. Particularly, the insulating effect prevent permafrost degradation with the rapidly climate warming on the QTP. However, few studies investigated how Bryophytes will react to environmental change at the global scale. In this study, a maximum entropy (Maxent) model was utilized to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Bryophytes on the QTP. Predictions were based on the under historical (years of 1970–2000) and future climate scenarios (years of 2041–2060 and 2081–2100) using the average climate data of nine global climate models (GCMs) for shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2–4.5) of CMIP6 and other environmental variables. In addition, the key environmental factors affecting the habitat distribution and range shifts of Bryophytes were examined. The results revealed that Bryophytes occupied an area of approximately 179.97 (± 0.87) × 104 km2, 77 (± 0.44)% of the total areal extent of QTP in the past. Niche suitability of the Bryophytes was dominated by soil moisture, ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Under future climate scenarios, the occupied area increased continuously towards the relatively higher elevation regions. Moreover, permafrost regions would become the buffer zone for the range shifts of niches and covers of Bryophytes on the QTP. This paper will improve our understanding of vegetable potential impact on the permafrost climate feedback.