Anàlisi de l'impacte operatiu, ambiental i econòmic d'una renovació accelerada de la flota de curt i mitjà radi del grup IAG

This paper analyzes the potential impact of an accelerated renewal of International Airlines Group's (IAG) short- and medium-haul fleet in a European context marked by rising environmental costs, the mandatory inclusion of sustainable aviation fuels, and the need to reduce fuel consumption. The study does not start from an actual corporate transaction nor does it aim to financially value an acquisition. It constructs a theoretical scenario of additional availability of new-generation aircraft associated with Wizz Air's order book. The main objective is to quantify the extent to which this early access could accelerate the replacement of IAG's older aircraft and reduce its emissions, fuel costs, and certain airport environmental fees. The methodology is based on a comparative simulation between two annual scenarios through 2030. The first considers only IAG's own orders, while the second partially incorporates Wizz Air's planned deliveries to replace non-neo aircraft under an oldest-first criterion. The model focuses exclusively on short- and medium-haul narrow-body aircraft, excluding long-haul activity. From the annual fleet composition, fuel consumption, regulated CO2 emissions, costs associated with conventional Jet Fuel, SAF, and the EU ETS, Heathrow environmental charges, and effective annual capacity are estimated. The results show that the accelerated renewal scenario allows IAG to completely retire its non-neo fleet by 2029, whereas under the conservative scenario 84 old aircraft will still remain in 2030. This acceleration reduces annual consumption to 1. 680 Mt from 2029 onward and generates an accumulated saving of 623. 0 kt of fuel and 1. 872 Mt of regulatory CO2 between 2026 and 2030. In economic terms, the accelerated scenario shows a total fuel cost 682. 5 million lower than that of scenario 1 over the analyzed period and also significantly reduces British Airways' estimated environmental charges at Heathrow. Furthermore, the effective annual short- and medium-haul capacity increases to 121. 72 million annual seats, with potential gross revenues higher under conservative assumptions on load factor and revenue per passenger. Overall, the work shows that the early availability of neo/XLR aircraft could have operational, environmental, and economic value for IAG, although its actual feasibility would require additional financial, contractual, and regulatory studies.