Horizontal gene transfer barrier shapes the evolution of prokaryotic pangenomes

Abstract The genomes of bacteria and archaea evolve by extensive loss and gain of genes which, for any group of related prokaryotic genomes, result in the formation of a pangenome with the universal, asymmetrical U-shaped distribution of gene commonality. To elucidate the evolutionary factors that define the specific shape of this distribution, we investigate the fit of simple models of genome evolution to the empirically observed gene commonality distributions and genomes intersections for 33 groups of closely related bacterial genomes. The combined analysis of genome intersections and gene commonality shows that at least one of the two simplifying assumptions that are usually adopted for modeling the evolution of the U-shaped distribution, those of infinitely many genes and constant genome size, is invalid. The violation of both these assumptions stems from the horizontal gene transfer barrier, i.e . the cost of accommodation of foreign genes by prokaryotes.