Evaluation and analysis of risk factors for fractured vertebral recompression post-percutaneous kyphoplasty: a retrospective cohort study based on logistic regression analysis

BACKGROUND: Vertebral recompression after percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) may lead to recurrent pain, deformity, and neurological impairment, compromising prognosis and quality of life. OBJECTIVE: To identify independent risk factors for postoperative recompression and develop predictive models for risk assessment. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 284 OVCF patients treated with PKP, grouped by recompression status. Predictors were screened using univariate and correlation analyses. Multicollinearity was assessed using variance inflation factor (VIF). A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and validated via 10-fold cross-validation and temporal validation. RESULTS: Five independent predictors were identified: incomplete anterior cortex (odds ratio [OR] = 9.38), high paravertebral muscle fat infiltration (OR = 218.68), low vertebral CT value (OR = 0.87), large Cobb change (OR = 1.45), and high vertebral height recovery rate (OR = 22.64). The logistic regression model achieved strong performance: accuracy 97.67%, precision 97.06%, recall 97.06%, F1 score 97.06%, specificity 98.08%, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.998. Machine learning models (e.g., random forest) were also evaluated but did not outperform logistic regression in accuracy or interpretability. CONCLUSION: Five imaging-based predictors of vertebral recompression were identified. The logistic regression model showed excellent predictive accuracy and generalizability, supporting its clinical utility for early risk stratification and personalized decision-making in OVCF patients undergoing PKP.