Reliability Prediction Approach Based on Non-Probabilistic Interval Analysis: Case Study of Transmission System

This paper presents a reliability prediction approach based on non-probabilistic interval analysis. First, the interval reliability prediction model is presented from the aspects of interval stress-strength interference model, and interval reliability criteria. Then, the process of reliability prediction approach based on non-probabilistic interval analysis is formulated. Furthermore, the reliabilities of Planetary Gear Drive Mechanism at different confidence coefficients are obtained by using the non-probabilistic interval analysis. Finally, the result of the non-probabilistic interval analysis is compared with the results of non-probabilistic convex model and the probabilistic method in order to illustrate the characteristics, advantage and engineering practicality of the non-probabilistic interval analysis. In addition, the consistent relationship between reliability by using probabilistic method and the reliability by using non-probabilistic method is preliminarily discussed. All in all, this paper not only takes planetary gear drive mechanism as a case to provide guidance for mechanisms by using the reliability prediction approach based on non-probabilistic interval analysis, but also it points out the direction for future research of the reliability prediction approach based on non-probabilistic interval analysis.