Unraveling land system vulnerability to rapid urbanization: An indicator-based vulnerability assessment for Wuhan, China

Rapid urbanization induced by land use change poses a great threat to the structure and function of land system. There is an urgent need to profile the components underlying the vulnerability of land system and the areas that are most vulnerable to land use change. In this study, we attempt to integrate indices associated with land system vulnerability and assess the influence of urbanization on the urban environment for the case study area of Wuhan city in China. The paper aims to (1) establish a conceptual model to explore the formation mechanism of the vulnerability coupling source-pathway-receptor-consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC vulnerability definition; (2) provide an indicator system of land system vulnerability assessment based on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions; (3) analyze the spatio-temporal variations of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Results shed light on the spatio-temporal dynamics of components and vulnerability in rapid urbanization areas as follows: (1) land use intensity, ecological land area, three key ecosystem services (including haze regulation, flood regulation, biodiversity) and economical capacity constitute the indicator system of land system vulnerability assessment, (2) seven central districts are more exposed and sensitive to rapid urbanization than other districts and the areas of the lowest adaptive capacity are mainly located in the urban-rural fringe regions with lower ecological function and moderate economic development, (3) the most vulnerable areas mainly concentrate in central areas, while the slightly vulnerable areas are in the suburban areas. Meanwhile, the vulnerability of the urban-rural fringe region shows the fastest growing tendency, (4) the spatial-temporal distributions of vulnerability display certain relevance with that of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This study not only contributes to promoting a general methodology to assess vulnerability in rapid urbanization area but also provides information for land use planning and policy formulation that can be used by cities in order to mitigate the vulnerability of urban ecosystem.