Exploring the power of MRI and clinical measures in predicting Alzheimer’s disease neuropathology

Abstract Background The ability to predict Alzheimer’s disease (AD) before diagnosis is a topic of intense research. Early diagnosis would aid in improving treatment and intervention options, however, there are no current methods that can accurately predict AD years in advance. This study examines a novel machine learning approach that integrates the combined effects of vascular (white matter hyperintensities, WMHs), and structural brain changes (gray matter, GM) with clinical factors (cognitive status) to predict post-mortem neuropathological outcomes. Methods Healthy older adults, participants with mild cognitive impairment, and AD from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset with both post-mortem neuropathology data and antemortem MRI and clinical data were included. Longitudinal data were analyzed across three intervals before death (post-mortem data): 0-4 years, 4-8 years, and 8-14 years. Additionally, cross-sectional data at the last visit or interval (within four years, 0-4 years) before death were also examined. Machine learning models including gradient boosting, bagging, support vector regression, and linear regression were implemented. These models were applied towards feature selection of the top seven MRI, clinical, and demographic data to identify the best performing set of variables that could predict postmortem neuropathology outcomes (i.e., neurofibrillary tangles, neuritic plaques, diffuse plaques, senile/amyloid plaques, and amyloid angiopathy). Results A total of 94 participants (55-90 years of age) were included in the study. At last visit, the best-performing model included total and temporal lobe WMHs and achieved r =0.87( RMSE =0.62) during cross-validation for neuritic plaques. For longitudinal assessments across different intervals, the best-performing model included regional GM (i.e., hippocampus, amygdala, caudate) and frontal lobe WMH and achieved r =0.93( RMSE =0.59) during cross-validation for neurofibrillary tangles. For MRI and clinical predictors and clinical-only predictors, t -tests demonstrated significant differences at all intervals before death ( t [-13.60-7.90], p -values<0.001). Overall, post-mortem neuropathology outcome were predicted up to 14 years before death with high accuracies (∼90%). Conclusions Prediction accuracy was higher for post-mortem neuropathology outcomes that included MRI (WMHs, GM) and clinical features compared to clinical-only features. These findings highlight that MRI features are critical to successfully predict AD-related pathology years in advance which will improve participant selection for clinical trials, treatments, and intervention options.