The double-edged effect of political trust on the COVID-19 pandemic: empirical evidence from China

This study follows numerous academic discussions on how political trust helps mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Using two waves of pandemic data in China, we estimate whether the central and local political trust has double-edged effects on COVID-19 mitigation. The results show that localities with high political trust were associated with more COVID-19 cases in the first outbreak and long-run rebounds, but also demonstrate notable disparities in COVID-19 cases linked to hierarchical trust between central and local governments. Trust in both central and local government was independently linked to a higher number of COVID-19 cases. However, when considering the impacts of combinations of trust in central and local governments, trust in local government could potentially contribute to the containment of COVID-19. These results add to a growing literature that high political trust may not always be good and echo the well-established association between trust and health, particularly during a pandemic.